Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures: Eight Long-Range Scenarios (MIT Press)
| Author | : | |
| Rating | : | 4.34 (785 Votes) |
| Asin | : | 0262028891 |
| Format Type | : | paperback |
| Number of Pages | : | 248 Pages |
| Publish Date | : | 2013-03-19 |
| Language | : | English |
DESCRIPTION:
I recommend this book to anyone who wishes to understand the range of possible futures. Better still, they give the reader tools to build her own scenarios. If applied to its fullest potential, this book could also serve as a jumping-off point for other related scenario planning efforts. Top-drawer scenario builders map a unique array of 'big picture' global outcomes shaped by energy prices, economic growth, and global harmony. As an energy economist, I also appreciate that the book adds to the usual energy market forecasting exercises that take eco
Excellent book. I have been following Hillebrand's professional and Pedro Pablo Sastre Excellent book. I have been following Hillebrand's professional and academic career for years and have been impressed by his unique insights, incisive reasoning and thought-provoking prose.. Comprehensive and insightful Cordelia An interesting presentation showing the connections between economic growth, energy and geopolitics. Overall great book.. Interesting study, but of limited usefulness. Barnabas I admit I just skimmed this book, so my review could well be considered unfair, but here's my observations:The computer program may be the best so far for evaluating long-range trends, but is unfortunately still too simplistic considering the complexity of national leaderships and international relationships. First, the treatment of the three variables chosen for the eight scenarios are based primarily on historical trends, which seems a bit questionable because communication today is so rapid that these could well be changing in the future. Second, the program keeps the variables the same in each of the eight scenarios over the
. Defense Department. Stacy Closson is Assistant Professor at the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce. Evan Hillebrand is Professor of International Economics the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce. From 1998 to 2002, she worked in the Office of Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the U.S. He wa
The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The "Regional Mercantilism" scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. Other publishe